Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.027800 2.146664 2.271602 2.413189 2.569775 2.738329 2.934391
2025-08-31 1.852987 2.017436 2.198595 2.414683 2.667739 2.957678 3.319451
2025-09-07 1.748348 1.940255 2.158644 2.428866 2.759048 3.156053 3.680402
2025-09-14 1.643948 1.849641 2.089315 2.394081 2.778771 3.259272 3.924195
2025-09-21 1.557248 1.771514 2.025995 2.356955 2.786301 3.340516 4.140024
2025-09-28 1.480203 1.699108 1.963224 2.313236 2.778000 3.395353 4.319735
2025-10-05 1.448745 1.679875 1.963738 2.348114 2.872563 3.593381 4.723201
2025-10-12 1.421983 1.664215 1.966646 2.384546 2.969764 3.801486 5.166999
2025-10-19 1.394646 1.645840 1.964144 2.412197 3.055018 3.998187 5.618914
2025-10-26 1.354604 1.608888 1.934846 2.400409 3.081398 4.106872 5.937823
2025-11-02 1.317534 1.574029 1.906301 2.387311 3.103736 4.209585 6.259343
2025-11-09 1.278231 1.534551 1.869548 2.360060 3.102056 4.272311 6.515168
2025-11-16 1.240684 1.496621 1.834041 2.333717 3.101417 4.339045 6.795100
2025-11-23 1.215194 1.473921 1.818442 2.335360 3.144154 4.482539 7.254248
2025-11-30 1.195405 1.458050 1.811394 2.348793 3.205865 4.664314 7.830128
2025-12-07 1.161967 1.422329 1.774906 2.315852 3.189410 4.703677 8.097651
2025-12-14 1.129779 1.387333 1.738161 2.280678 3.166737 4.728993 8.337333
2025-12-21 1.097401 1.351158 1.698513 2.239232 3.130859 4.725983 8.508216
2025-12-28 1.089327 1.348490 1.706827 2.272298 3.223517 4.978373 9.383631
2026-01-04 1.082062 1.346596 1.715981 2.306821 3.320820 5.251464 10.402800
2026-01-11 1.072740 1.341411 1.719953 2.333011 3.404955 5.508106 11.469680
2026-01-18 1.053593 1.321627 1.701514 2.321847 3.420187 5.619764 12.127482
2026-01-25 1.035002 1.302142 1.682870 2.309440 3.432131 5.725396 12.805298